Braun Research
9 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | 7.7 pts | R+1.2 | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | 2.8 pts | R+2.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-09 | VT-1 House | D+39.0 | D+40.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | VT Governor | R+31.4 | R+41.1 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | VT President | D+23.3 | D+35.4 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | VT-1 House | D+37.0 | D+43.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | VT Governor | R+14.0 | R+14.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | VT Senate | D+41.0 | D+39.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | VT President | D+28.0 | D+26.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | VT Senate | D+37.0 | D+28.2 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | VT Governor | R+7.0 | R+8.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.