American Viewpoint
14 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 1.3 pts | R+1.3 | 100% |
| 2021 | 2 | 19.1 pts | — | 0% |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.7 pts | R+3.9 | 100% |
| 2018 | 6 | 4.7 pts | R+2.8 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 3.1 pts | D+3.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 0.5 pts | D+0.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-27 | OK Governor | R+15.0 | R+13.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2021-07-20 | TX-6 House | R+10.0 | D+6.6 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 2021-06-02 | TX-6 House | R+15.0 | D+6.6 | 21.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-07 | IA-4 House | R+23.0 | R+24.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | PA-1 House | R+16.0 | R+13.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | CA-21 House | R+11.0 | R+0.9 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | AZ-1 House | Even | D+7.7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2018-10-16 | IN Senate | R+4.0 | R+5.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | IN Senate | R+4.0 | R+5.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-02 | IN Senate | R+4.0 | R+5.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | IL-13 House | R+13.0 | R+0.8 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | OH-1 House | R+7.0 | R+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NY-21 House | R+25.0 | R+28.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | CA-31 House | D+4.0 | D+3.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.