RABA Research
7 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 8.0 pts | D+8.0 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 13.4 pts | D+13.4 | 0% |
| 2018 | 1 | 3.7 pts | D+3.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 6.4 pts | D+6.4 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-20 | TN Governor | R+24.0 | R+32.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | IA Senate | D+6.0 | R+6.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-23 | IA President | D+4.0 | R+8.2 | 12.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-25 | IA Senate | D+12.0 | R+6.6 | 18.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-25 | IA President | D+2.0 | R+8.2 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-03-07 | PA-18 House | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | IA President | R+3.0 | R+9.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.