Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute
22 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 8.8 pts | D+8.8 | 50% |
| 2020 | 10 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 90% |
| 2018 | 6 | 6.4 pts | D+6.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 12.8 pts | D+12.8 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-22 | OH Governor | R+16.6 | R+25.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | OH Senate | D+4.2 | R+6.1 | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-14 | OH Governor | R+17.8 | R+25.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | OH Senate | D+3.1 | R+6.1 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | MI Senate | D+5.9 | D+1.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | WI President | D+6.7 | D+0.6 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | PA President | D+5.1 | D+1.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | OH President | R+1.6 | R+8.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | MI President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | MI Senate | D+4.2 | D+1.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | WI President | D+9.3 | D+0.6 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | PA President | D+2.7 | D+1.2 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | OH President | D+0.6 | R+8.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-15 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | OH Governor | R+0.6 | R+3.7 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | OH Senate | D+19.5 | D+6.9 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | OH Governor | R+2.6 | R+3.7 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | OH Senate | D+16.5 | D+6.9 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | OH Governor | R+5.0 | R+3.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | OH Senate | D+17.4 | D+6.9 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | OH President | D+8.8 | R+8.1 | 16.9 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-10 | OH Senate | R+12.3 | R+20.9 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.