Alaska Survey Research
22 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 4.3 pts | D+3.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 8.6 pts | D+8.6 | 67% |
| 2018 | 9 | 7.1 pts | R+1.7 | 89% |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.0 pts | D+1.2 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 12.8 pts | D+12.8 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-21 | AK Senate | D+11.0 | D+7.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | AK-1 House | D+12.8 | D+9.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-26 | AK Senate | D+13.2 | D+7.4 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-07-22 | AK-1 House | D+1.6 | D+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-07-04 | AK-1 House | D+11.0 | D+3.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | AK-1 House | D+2.0 | R+9.1 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-29 | AK Senate | R+4.0 | R+12.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | AK President | R+4.0 | R+10.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | AK-1 House | D+1.0 | R+6.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-28 | AK Governor | R+0.2 | R+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-21 | AK Governor | R+4.6 | R+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | AK-1 House | R+2.0 | R+6.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | AK Governor | R+17.0 | R+7.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | AK-1 House | R+3.7 | R+6.6 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | AK Governor | R+23.9 | R+7.0 | 16.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | AK-1 House | R+11.3 | R+6.6 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | AK Governor | R+15.4 | R+7.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | AK-1 House | R+15.0 | R+14.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | AK President | R+5.5 | R+14.7 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | AK Senate | R+37.7 | R+32.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | AK-1 House | D+5.5 | R+10.0 | 15.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-25 | AK Senate | D+7.9 | R+2.1 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.