Alaska Governor Race

2026 Election • Open Seat (Term Limited)
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held August 18, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Tom Begich 25,383 20.0%

Republican Primary

Held August 18, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Bernadette M. Wilson 13,418 24.4%
Dave Bronson 10,745 19.6%
Treg Taylor 9,483 17.3%
Adam Crum 7,292 13.3%
Shelley Hughes 7,160 13.0%
Matt A. Heilala 3,464 6.3%
Edna DeVries 1,760 3.2%
Lesil McGuire 1,614 2.9%

Nonpartisan Primary

Held August 18, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Jonathan S. “JKT” Kreiss-Tomkins 27,623 21.8%
Click Bishop 8,860 7.0%
Bill Walker 5,429 4.3%
Meda DeWitt 3,153 2.5%
James W. “JP4” Parkin 464 0.4%
Henry F. “Hank” Kroll 234 0.2%

Undeclared Primary

Held August 18, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Destry J. Sr. Payne 255 0.2%

Full calendar and every race: Alaska primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Mike Dunleavy)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Safe D our polls experts: Tilt D
Term Limited
Yes
Polls
3 polls

PollingSource Rating

Safe D
Our polling average D+21.0 · 3 polls

General Election Polling Trend

Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.

The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean D

Inside Elections

Toss-up

Candidates

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Nominee

Democrat
Tom Begich

Tom Begich Nominee

Democrat

Bernadette Wilson Nominee

Republican
Dave Bronson

Dave Bronson Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
42.3%
Republican
21.3%
Margin
D+21.0
Last Poll
Oct 1, 2026

Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
New York Times/Siena University 2024 err 3.1 2026-10-01 504 LV ±5.10 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 40.00% Bernadette Wilson 20.00%
Cygnal (R) partisan·R 2024 err 4.2 2026-09-27 502 LV ±4.37 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 44.00% Bernadette Wilson 24.00%
co/efficient (R) partisan·R 2026-09-17 799 LV ±3.50 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 43.00% Bernadette Wilson 20.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Alaska governor's race?

Polling so far tested a matchup that is no longer live: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is not the Democrat nominee — Tom Begich is. In that earlier polling, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led Bernadette Wilson 42.3% to 21.3%. The PollingSource average resets once the final matchup is polled.

Is the 2026 Alaska governor's race competitive?

No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe D for Democrats.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Alaska governor's race say?

The most recent public poll, from New York Times/Siena University (completed October 1, 2026), found Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 40% and Bernadette Wilson (R) at 20%.

When is the 2026 Alaska governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Dunleavy term-limited (2018+2022), open seat

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