Data for Progress partisan·D
155 scored general-election polls (2019–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | 4.1 pts | D+3.8 | 25% |
| 2022 | 60 | 3.7 pts | R+1.5 | 77% |
| 2021 | 1 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 81 | 5.8 pts | D+5.7 | 71% |
| 2019 | 1 | 2.3 pts | R+2.3 | 100% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | AK Senate | Mary Peltola 53.00% – Dan Sullivan 47.00% | D+6.0 | |
| 2026-08-04 | AK Senate | 605 LV | Mary Peltola 47.00% – Dan S. Sullivan 41.00% | D+6.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | NV President | D+2.0 | R+3.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | NV President | D+2.0 | R+3.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | GA President | D+1.0 | R+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-03 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-13 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-15 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-06-28 | National President | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-12-03 | GA Senate | D+2.0 | D+2.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | WI Governor | R+2.0 | D+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | OH Governor | R+24.0 | R+25.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NH Governor | R+18.0 | R+15.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NV Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | GA Governor | R+9.0 | R+7.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | FL Governor | R+15.0 | R+19.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | CO Governor | D+12.0 | D+19.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | AZ Governor | R+4.0 | D+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | WI Senate | R+6.0 | R+1.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | OH Senate | R+10.0 | R+6.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NC Senate | R+6.0 | R+3.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NH Senate | D+3.0 | D+9.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NV Senate | R+2.0 | D+0.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | GA Senate | R+1.0 | D+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-04 | FL Senate | R+12.0 | R+16.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | CO Senate | D+7.0 | D+14.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | AZ Senate | R+1.0 | D+4.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-03 | OR Governor | D+4.0 | D+3.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-03 | OR Senate | D+14.0 | D+14.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-30 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | NY Governor | D+12.0 | D+7.3 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | NY Senate | D+17.0 | D+14.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | VT-1 House | D+25.0 | D+34.8 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | VT Governor | R+41.0 | R+47.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | VT Senate | D+31.0 | D+40.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | FL Governor | R+12.0 | R+19.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | FL Senate | R+7.0 | R+16.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | WI Governor | R+1.0 | D+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-18 | WI Senate | R+5.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | OR Governor | R+1.0 | D+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-17 | OR Senate | D+11.0 | D+14.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NH Governor | R+13.0 | R+15.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NV Governor | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NH Senate | D+6.0 | D+9.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NV Senate | R+1.0 | D+0.8 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-15 | GA Governor | R+10.0 | R+7.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-14 | AZ Governor | R+4.0 | D+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-14 | AZ Senate | Even | D+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
| 2022-10-12 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+2.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | OH Governor | R+19.0 | R+25.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | OH Senate | R+3.0 | R+6.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-05 | CO Governor | D+17.0 | D+19.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-05 | CO Senate | D+9.0 | D+14.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-27 | NH Governor | R+13.0 | R+15.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-27 | NH Senate | D+7.0 | D+9.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | WI Governor | R+1.0 | D+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-22 | WI Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-18 | GA Governor | R+7.0 | R+7.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-18 | GA Senate | Even | D+1.0 | 1.0 | — |
| 2022-09-17 | AZ Governor | R+4.0 | D+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-17 | AZ Senate | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | NV Governor | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2022-09-16 | NV Senate | R+1.0 | D+0.8 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-11 | NY Governor | D+13.0 | D+7.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-08-19 | NY-19 House | R+8.0 | D+5.3 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-10 | VA Governor | D+5.0 | R+1.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-17 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | D+1.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-17 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+2.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | VA Senate | D+15.0 | D+12.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | TX Senate | R+3.0 | R+9.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | SC Senate | R+3.0 | R+10.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | NC Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | MS Senate | R+3.0 | R+10.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MN Senate | D+10.0 | D+5.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | KS Senate | R+6.0 | R+11.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | IA Senate | D+4.0 | R+6.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | GA Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | CO Senate | D+9.0 | D+9.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | AZ Senate | D+8.0 | D+2.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | AL Senate | R+12.0 | R+20.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | VA President | D+11.0 | D+10.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | TX President | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | SC President | R+9.0 | R+11.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | NV President | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | MS President | R+14.0 | R+16.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MN President | D+8.0 | D+7.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | KS President | R+14.0 | R+14.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | IA President | R+2.0 | R+8.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | GA President | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | CO President | D+12.0 | D+13.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | AZ President | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | AL President | R+20.0 | R+25.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | TX Senate | R+2.0 | R+9.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | SC Senate | Even | R+10.3 | 10.3 | — |
| 2020-10-24 | TX President | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-24 | SC President | R+6.0 | R+11.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | PR-1 House | D+12.0 | D+9.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | PR Governor | D+4.0 | D+1.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-20 | National President | D+10.2 | D+4.4 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | TX Senate | R+3.0 | R+9.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | TX President | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | NC President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | MI President | D+5.0 | D+2.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | SC Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.3 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | IA Senate | D+4.0 | R+6.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | SC President | R+9.0 | R+11.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | IA President | R+1.0 | R+8.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | GA President | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2020-10-06 | National President | D+15.4 | D+4.4 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | TX Senate | R+3.0 | R+9.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | NC Senate | D+11.0 | R+1.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | MT Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | TX President | D+2.0 | R+5.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | NC President | D+7.0 | R+1.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | MT President | R+6.0 | R+16.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | SC Senate | R+1.0 | R+10.3 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | ME Senate | D+8.0 | R+8.6 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-25 | IA Senate | D+2.0 | R+6.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-25 | AZ Senate | D+9.0 | D+2.4 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | SC President | R+4.0 | R+11.7 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | ME President | D+14.0 | D+9.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | IA President | R+3.0 | R+8.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | National President | D+13.3 | D+4.4 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | TX Senate | R+2.0 | R+9.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | AZ Senate | D+9.0 | D+2.4 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | TX President | R+1.0 | R+5.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | AZ President | R+1.0 | D+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-16 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | KY Senate | R+7.0 | R+19.5 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | KS Senate | Even | R+11.4 | 11.4 | — |
| 2020-09-16 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | MI President | D+6.0 | D+2.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | KY President | R+20.0 | R+25.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | KS President | R+6.0 | R+14.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | GA President | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2020-09-15 | National President | D+10.6 | D+4.4 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2019-11-06 | LA Governor | D+0.4 | D+2.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.