SSRS
55 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 1.9 pts | D+0.1 | 83% |
| 2020 | 17 | 7.0 pts | D+7.0 | 71% |
| 2018 | 25 | 5.9 pts | D+4.7 | 72% |
| 2016 | 1 | 15.0 pts | D+15.0 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-27 | GA Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | WI Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | PA Governor | D+15.0 | D+14.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | MI Governor | D+6.0 | D+10.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | WI Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | PA Senate | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-29 | NV Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-29 | AZ Governor | D+3.0 | D+0.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-29 | NV Senate | R+2.0 | D+0.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-29 | AZ Senate | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | NC Governor | D+10.0 | D+4.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI Senate | D+12.0 | D+1.7 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AZ Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | WI President | D+8.0 | D+0.6 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | NC President | D+6.0 | R+1.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI President | D+12.0 | D+2.8 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | D+12.0 | D+3.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | National President | D+12.0 | D+4.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | PA President | D+10.0 | D+1.2 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+3.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | National President | D+16.0 | D+4.4 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-11 | NC Governor | D+9.0 | D+4.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-11 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-11 | WI President | D+10.0 | D+0.6 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-11 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-11-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+13.0 | D+8.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | TN Governor | R+10.0 | R+21.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | NV Governor | D+1.0 | D+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | FL Governor | D+1.0 | R+0.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-26 | AZ Governor | R+7.0 | R+14.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | TN Senate | R+4.0 | R+10.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | NV Senate | D+3.0 | D+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | FL Senate | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-26 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | FL Governor | D+12.0 | R+0.4 | 12.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-18 | FL Senate | D+5.0 | R+0.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-11 | TX Governor | R+18.0 | R+13.3 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | TX Senate | R+7.0 | R+2.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TN Governor | R+11.0 | R+21.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TN Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.8 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+13.0 | D+8.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | NV Governor | D+4.0 | D+4.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | NV Senate | D+4.0 | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | MO Senate | D+3.0 | R+5.8 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-13 | TN Governor | R+9.0 | R+21.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-13 | AZ Governor | R+3.0 | R+14.2 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-13 | TN Senate | D+5.0 | R+10.8 | 15.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-13 | AZ Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.3 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | National Generic Ballot | D+10.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-06 | VA Senate | D+16.0 | D+16.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-25 | TN President | R+11.0 | R+26.0 | 15.0 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.