Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab
6 scored general-election polls (2018–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-23 | MT-1 House | R+2.0 | R+12.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | MT Governor | R+5.0 | R+12.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | MT Senate | D+2.0 | R+10.0 | 12.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-23 | MT President | R+7.0 | R+16.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | MT-1 House | R+7.5 | R+4.6 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | MT Senate | D+3.1 | D+3.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.