KFF
14 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 6.6 pts | D+6.6 | 0% |
| 2020 | 7 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 57% |
| 2018 | 5 | 6.2 pts | R+0.2 | 20% |
| 2016 | 1 | 8.8 pts | D+8.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-21 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-09 | National President | D+11.0 | D+4.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | NC Governor | D+10.0 | D+4.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-06 | AZ Senate | D+8.0 | D+2.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-06 | FL President | D+1.0 | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-06 | AZ President | D+5.0 | D+0.3 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | National Generic Ballot | D+12.0 | D+8.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | NV Governor | R+6.0 | D+4.1 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-25 | FL Governor | D+8.0 | R+0.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-25 | NV Senate | R+1.0 | D+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-25 | FL Senate | D+3.0 | R+0.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-15 | National President | D+11.0 | D+2.2 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.