Y2 Analytics
13 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 9.3 pts | R+9.3 | 0% |
| 2016 | 5 | 7.2 pts | D+4.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 13.9 pts | R+13.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-19 | UT Governor | R+25.0 | R+32.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | UT President | R+7.0 | R+20.5 | 13.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | AZ President | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | UT Governor | R+28.0 | R+32.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | UT President | R+10.0 | R+20.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | UT-4 House | R+9.0 | D+0.3 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-02 | UT President | R+9.0 | R+18.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | UT Senate | R+40.0 | R+41.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | UT Governor | R+38.0 | R+38.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | UT President | Even | R+18.1 | 18.1 | — |
| 2016-09-23 | UT-4 House | R+20.0 | R+12.5 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | UT-4 House | R+19.0 | R+5.1 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.