Repass
9 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 100% |
| 2021 | 1 | 3.1 pts | R+3.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 21.1 pts | D+21.1 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-08 | IL Governor | D+22.0 | D+12.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-08 | IL Senate | D+19.7 | D+15.3 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2021-09-10 | VA Governor | R+5.0 | R+1.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | WV Governor | R+19.0 | R+33.9 | 14.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | WV Senate | R+20.0 | R+43.3 | 23.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | WV President | R+14.0 | R+38.9 | 24.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | WV Senate | D+5.0 | D+3.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-09 | IL Governor | D+16.9 | D+15.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | WV Governor | D+11.0 | D+6.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.