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Leger

27 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.

Record by cycle

CyclePollsAvg. ErrorLeanWinner Called
2020 9 3.5 pts D+3.5 100%
2016 18 3.5 pts R+1.4 88%

Every scored poll

DateRacePoll MarginActualErrorCalled It
2020-10-31 National President D+8.0 D+4.4 3.6 ✓
2020-10-24 National President D+8.0 D+4.4 3.6 ✓
2020-10-17 National President D+9.0 D+4.4 4.6 ✓
2020-10-10 National President D+11.0 D+4.4 6.6 ✓
2020-10-03 National President D+9.0 D+4.4 4.6 ✓
2020-09-26 National President D+7.0 D+4.4 2.6 ✓
2020-09-19 National President D+7.0 D+4.4 2.6 ✓
2020-09-12 National President D+6.0 D+4.4 1.6 ✓
2020-09-05 National President D+6.0 D+4.4 1.6 ✓
2016-11-06 National President D+4.0 D+2.2 1.8 ✓
2016-11-05 WA President D+15.0 D+15.7 0.7 ✓
2016-11-05 NV President Even D+2.4 2.4 —
2016-11-05 CA President D+23.0 D+30.1 7.1 ✓
2016-11-05 AZ President R+2.0 R+3.6 1.6 ✓
2016-11-05 CA Senate D+22.0 D+23.2 1.2 ✓
2016-11-05 AZ Senate R+8.0 R+13.0 5.0 ✓
2016-11-05 WA Senate D+16.0 D+18.0 2.0 ✓
2016-11-05 WA Governor D+9.0 D+8.8 0.2 ✓
2016-10-10 National President D+5.0 D+2.2 2.8 ✓
2016-09-13 WA President D+10.0 D+15.7 5.7 ✓
2016-09-13 NV President R+2.0 D+2.4 4.4 ✗
2016-09-13 CA President D+27.0 D+30.1 3.1 ✓
2016-09-13 AZ President R+4.0 R+3.6 0.5 ✓
2016-09-13 CA Senate D+14.0 D+23.2 9.2 ✓
2016-09-13 AZ Senate R+18.0 R+13.0 5.0 ✓
2016-09-13 WA Senate D+21.0 D+18.0 3.0 ✓
2016-09-13 NV Senate R+4.0 D+2.4 6.4 ✗

Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.

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