TIPP Insights partisan·R
31 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16 | 2.5 pts | D+2.5 | 33% |
| 2022 | 1 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | 0% |
| 2020 | 8 | 1.7 pts | D+1.2 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.5 pts | R+3.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 1.9 pts | R+1.8 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-11-04 | National President | Even | R+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-16 | GA President | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-09 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-04 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-25 | NV President | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-18 | GA President | Even | R+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2024-09-13 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-13 | NC President | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-05 | AZ President | Even | R+5.5 | 5.5 | — |
| 2024-08-30 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-22 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-14 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-08-02 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+2.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-31 | National President | D+4.0 | D+4.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | National President | D+4.7 | D+4.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | National President | D+6.4 | D+4.4 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-16 | National President | D+5.2 | D+4.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National President | D+2.7 | D+4.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | National President | D+5.6 | D+4.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | D+8.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-06 | National President | R+1.5 | D+2.2 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | National President | D+0.5 | D+2.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-26 | National President | D+2.5 | D+2.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-20 | National President | D+0.1 | D+2.2 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.