Strategies 360
16 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 2.5 pts | R+2.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 10 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 88% |
| 2018 | 1 | 0.6 pts | R+0.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 0.8 pts | D+0.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.6 pts | D+1.3 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-25 | WA Senate | D+12.0 | D+14.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | NM-2 House | D+1.0 | R+7.5 | 8.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | MT-1 House | Even | R+12.8 | 12.8 | — |
| 2020-10-17 | MT Governor | R+7.0 | R+12.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | MT Senate | R+1.0 | R+10.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | MT President | R+8.0 | R+16.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | CA-50 House | Even | R+7.9 | 7.9 | — |
| 2020-09-30 | CA-22 House | R+5.0 | R+8.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-11 | WA Governor | D+16.0 | D+13.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-11 | WA President | D+22.0 | D+19.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | CA-22 House | R+6.0 | R+5.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | WA President | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | WA Governor | D+10.0 | D+8.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | CO Governor | D+3.0 | D+3.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | CO Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.