Patinkin Research Strategies
12 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 8 | 5.5 pts | D+5.5 | 88% |
| 2018 | 1 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-31 | GA Governor | R+2.0 | R+7.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | GA Senate | D+4.0 | D+1.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | GA Governor | R+3.4 | R+7.5 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | AZ Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | AZ President | D+7.0 | D+0.3 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | AK Senate | D+1.0 | R+12.7 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | AK President | R+3.0 | R+10.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | AZ President | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-11 | OR-2 House | R+9.0 | R+16.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.