Data Orbital
24 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 2.5 pts | R+2.5 | 100% |
| 2022 | 3 | 3.4 pts | R+3.4 | 33% |
| 2020 | 7 | 2.9 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.7 pts | D+2.2 | 100% |
| 2016 | 10 | 2.3 pts | D+1.3 | 89% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-28 | AZ President | R+8.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | AZ President | R+8.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-05 | AZ Governor | R+3.1 | D+0.7 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-05 | AZ Senate | D+1.7 | D+4.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | AZ Governor | R+2.5 | D+0.7 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | AZ Senate | D+1.1 | D+2.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | AZ President | D+0.6 | D+0.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | AZ Senate | D+6.2 | D+2.4 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | AZ President | D+5.2 | D+0.3 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | AZ Senate | D+5.5 | D+2.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | AZ President | D+4.5 | D+0.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | AZ President | D+2.7 | D+0.3 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | AZ Senate | D+8.2 | D+2.3 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-02 | AZ Governor | R+15.6 | R+14.2 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | AZ President | R+3.0 | R+3.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | AZ Senate | R+12.0 | R+13.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | AZ President | R+8.0 | R+3.6 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | AZ Senate | R+11.0 | R+13.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+3.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | AZ Senate | R+10.0 | R+13.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-26 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+3.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | AZ President | Even | R+3.6 | 3.6 | — |
| 2016-10-11 | AZ President | D+1.0 | R+3.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-21 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+3.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.