David Binder Research partisan·D
7 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 10.8 pts | D+10.8 | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 3.5 pts | — | — |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-05 | FL-13 House | Even | R+8.1 | 8.1 | — |
| 2022-09-16 | FL-2 House | R+6.0 | R+19.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | CA President | D+31.0 | D+29.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | WI President | D+10.0 | D+0.6 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | MN President | D+11.0 | D+7.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | IA President | R+6.0 | R+8.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | CA-17 House | Even | D+3.5 | 3.5 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.