Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies
11 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 2.5 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 6 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 33% |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.9 pts | D+4.4 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-29 | NC Senate | R+1.2 | R+3.2 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | NC Senate | R+0.3 | R+3.2 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | NC Governor | D+18.4 | D+4.5 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | NC Senate | D+5.1 | R+1.8 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-18 | NC President | D+4.1 | R+1.4 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-20 | NC Governor | D+10.3 | D+4.5 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-20 | NC Senate | D+1.3 | R+1.8 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-20 | NC President | D+0.3 | R+1.4 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-20 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+3.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-20 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+5.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-20 | NC Governor | R+2.0 | D+0.2 | 2.2 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.