Victory Research
13 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 12.0 pts | R+12.0 | 100% |
| 2020 | 6 | 6.3 pts | D+4.6 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 0.3 pts | D+0.3 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.3 pts | R+3.3 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-06 | IL Governor | D+7.6 | D+12.5 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-03 | IL-10 House | D+7.0 | D+26.0 | 19.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | IL-17 House | D+10.6 | D+4.1 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | IL-6 House | D+14.2 | D+7.4 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | IL-3 House | D+23.3 | D+12.8 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-31 | IL Senate | D+25.0 | D+16.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | IL President | D+15.9 | D+17.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | IL President | D+13.1 | D+17.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | IL Governor | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | IL Governor | D+15.9 | D+15.7 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | IL President | D+15.1 | D+17.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | IL Senate | D+10.7 | D+15.1 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-23 | IL President | D+13.5 | D+17.1 | 3.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.