OnMessage Inc. partisan·R
19 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | 5.5 pts | R+4.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 6 | 7.0 pts | R+1.9 | 83% |
| 2018 | 4 | 4.8 pts | R+4.8 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-12 | VA-10 House | D+2.0 | D+6.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | AZ Senate | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | WA Senate | D+4.0 | D+14.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | CO Senate | D+1.0 | D+14.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-15 | CA-26 House | D+4.8 | D+9.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+2.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | UT Senate | D+17.0 | D+10.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-12 | WI Senate | R+4.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-08 | AZ Senate | D+10.0 | D+4.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | OH President | R+0.5 | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | WI President | D+8.3 | D+0.6 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | NC President | R+12.4 | R+1.4 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | FL President | R+9.6 | R+3.4 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | CO President | D+7.9 | D+13.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | AZ President | R+3.6 | D+0.3 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-17 | MO Senate | R+7.0 | R+5.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | FL Governor | R+3.0 | R+0.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | FL Senate | R+5.0 | R+0.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-26 | NH-1 House | R+2.0 | D+8.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.