Lighthouse Research
5 scored general-election polls (2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 8.4 pts | D+7.3 | 80% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | UT-2 House | 515 LV | Peter Crosby 34.00% – Blake Moore 39.00% | R+5.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | UT-4 House | 513 LV | Jonny Larsen 33.00% – Mike Kennedy 42.00% | R+9.0 |
| 2026-09-15 | UT-3 House | 508 LV | Kent Udell 26.00% – Celeste Maloy 45.00% | R+19.0 |
| 2026-09-10 | UT-1 House | 515 LV | Ben McAdams 63.00% – Riley Owen 21.00% | D+42.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-06 | UT-4 House | D+10.5 | R+1.0 | 11.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-06 | UT-3 House | R+30.2 | R+42.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | UT-2 House | R+19.4 | R+22.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | UT-1 House | R+26.2 | R+39.1 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | UT Governor | R+35.4 | R+32.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.