Frederick Polls
8 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 2.8 pts | R+2.8 | — |
| 2020 | 5 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 40% |
| 2016 | 1 | 0.8 pts | D+0.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | — |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-25 | GA Senate | Even | D+2.8 | 2.8 | — |
| 2020-10-30 | NC Governor | D+7.0 | D+4.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-30 | PA President | D+4.0 | D+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-30 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-15 | FL-27 House | R+9.0 | R+9.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | ME Governor | Even | R+4.8 | 4.8 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.