Cygnal partisan·R
65 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 4.2 pts | D+4.2 | 100% |
| 2022 | 33 | 3.8 pts | R+0.1 | 85% |
| 2021 | 1 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | — |
| 2020 | 12 | 5.0 pts | D+3.6 | 100% |
| 2019 | 1 | 0.5 pts | R+0.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 9 | 2.5 pts | D+1.9 | 89% |
| 2016 | 2 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 100% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | AK Governor | 502 LV | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 44.00% – Bernadette Wilson 24.00% | D+20.0 |
| 2026-09-21 | NY-23 House | 400 LV | Aaron Gies 33.00% – Nick Langworthy 54.00% | R+21.0 |
| 2026-09-11 | IA Senate | 500 LV | Josh Turek 43.00% – Ashley Hinson 43.00% | Even |
| 2026-09-11 | IA Governor | 500 LV | Rob Sand 48.00% – Zach Lahn 44.00% | D+4.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-29 | VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | TX President | R+8.0 | R+13.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-28 | TX President | R+8.0 | R+13.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-27 | NY President | D+18.0 | D+12.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-24 | NJ President | D+12.0 | D+5.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-03 | MI Governor | D+3.7 | D+10.5 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | OH Governor | R+18.9 | R+25.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | OH Senate | R+6.2 | R+6.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-01 | NV Governor | R+5.0 | R+1.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-01 | NV Senate | R+2.5 | D+0.8 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-29 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.1 | R+2.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | MI Governor | D+6.4 | D+10.5 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | OH Governor | R+20.5 | R+25.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | AL Governor | R+34.2 | R+37.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | OH Senate | R+4.5 | R+6.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | AL Senate | R+29.6 | R+35.7 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | IA Governor | R+19.0 | R+18.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | IA Senate | R+11.2 | R+12.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | MI Governor | D+6.1 | D+10.5 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | OH Governor | R+17.6 | R+25.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | OH Senate | R+4.1 | R+6.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | NC Senate | R+3.8 | R+3.2 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | National Generic Ballot | R+1.7 | R+2.6 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | MI Governor | D+5.8 | D+10.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | OH Governor | R+21.1 | R+25.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | OH Senate | R+4.1 | R+6.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-13 | MI Governor | D+5.1 | D+10.5 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-10 | FL-27 House | R+6.0 | R+14.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-07 | OH Governor | R+22.3 | R+25.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-07 | OH Senate | R+1.9 | R+6.1 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-03 | IA Governor | R+20.6 | R+18.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-03 | IA Senate | R+14.4 | R+12.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-29 | OR-6 House | R+5.0 | D+2.5 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-29 | MI-8 House | R+1.0 | D+10.1 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-28 | NM Governor | D+1.8 | D+6.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-25 | MN Governor | D+3.4 | D+7.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-25 | NC Senate | D+0.3 | R+3.2 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+0.2 | R+2.6 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-20 | VA Governor | Even | R+1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| 2020-10-22 | IN Governor | R+18.3 | R+24.5 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | AL Senate | R+13.6 | R+20.4 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | TN Senate | R+20.7 | R+27.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-20 | NE Senate | R+29.9 | R+38.3 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MO Governor | R+6.6 | R+16.4 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | KY Senate | R+10.3 | R+19.5 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | TX Senate | R+8.1 | R+9.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | VA Senate | D+7.1 | D+12.1 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | VA President | D+9.0 | D+10.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | VA Senate | D+9.4 | D+12.1 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | VA President | D+10.1 | D+10.1 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | National President | D+7.6 | D+4.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2019-11-08 | LA Governor | D+2.2 | D+2.7 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | OH Governor | R+0.2 | R+3.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | OH Senate | D+10.4 | D+6.9 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | GA Governor | R+2.2 | R+1.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | FL Governor | R+0.6 | R+0.4 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | FL Senate | D+1.8 | R+0.1 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-26 | TN Governor | R+22.4 | R+21.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | TN Senate | R+5.8 | R+10.8 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | MO Senate | R+3.0 | R+5.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | IN Senate | R+2.9 | R+5.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | KY President | R+24.0 | R+29.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | KY Senate | R+9.7 | R+14.6 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-14 | AL Governor | R+21.3 | R+27.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.