Noble Predictive Insights
31 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 50% |
| 2022 | 10 | 3.7 pts | D+0.2 | 60% |
| 2020 | 7 | 4.3 pts | D+4.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 7 | 5.5 pts | R+3.9 | 57% |
| 2016 | 1 | 3.6 pts | D+3.6 | — |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-31 | NV President | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-31 | NV President | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-16 | NV President | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-16 | AZ President | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | NV Governor | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-26 | UT Senate | D+15.0 | D+10.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+0.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-25 | AZ Governor | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | AZ Senate | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-05 | AZ Governor | R+2.6 | D+0.7 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-05 | UT Senate | D+15.0 | D+10.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-05 | AZ Senate | D+13.0 | D+4.9 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | NV Governor | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | NV Senate | R+2.0 | D+0.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-24 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | AZ President | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | AZ-6 House | R+3.0 | R+4.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | AZ Senate | D+10.0 | D+2.4 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | AZ President | D+10.0 | D+0.3 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-02 | AZ Senate | R+1.0 | D+2.3 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-22 | AZ Governor | R+18.0 | R+14.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | AZ Senate | R+7.0 | D+2.3 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-03 | AZ Governor | R+17.0 | R+14.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | AZ Senate | R+6.0 | D+2.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-25 | AZ-4 House | R+32.0 | R+37.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-04-11 | AZ-8 House | R+10.0 | R+4.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | AZ President | Even | R+3.6 | 3.6 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.