University of New Hampshire Survey Center
90 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 5.8 pts | R+0.8 | 100% |
| 2020 | 15 | 5.3 pts | D+1.8 | 93% |
| 2018 | 8 | 3.4 pts | D+2.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 30 | 9.5 pts | D+9.3 | 80% |
| 2014 | 20 | 6.7 pts | D+3.7 | 80% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-04 | NH-2 House | D+8.0 | D+11.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NH-1 House | D+1.0 | D+8.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | ME-2 House | D+1.0 | D+6.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | ME-1 House | D+19.0 | D+25.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NH Governor | R+12.0 | R+15.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | ME Governor | D+8.0 | D+13.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+9.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-01 | VT-1 House | D+38.0 | D+34.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-01 | VT Governor | R+17.0 | R+47.0 | 30.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-01 | VT Senate | D+34.0 | D+40.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | NH-2 House | D+3.0 | D+11.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | NH-1 House | D+7.0 | D+8.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | ME-2 House | D+11.0 | D+6.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | ME-1 House | D+25.0 | D+25.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | NH Governor | R+18.0 | R+15.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | ME Governor | D+14.0 | D+13.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | NH Senate | D+8.0 | D+9.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NH-2 House | D+10.0 | D+10.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NH-1 House | R+2.0 | D+5.1 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | NH Governor | R+24.0 | R+31.8 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NH Senate | D+11.0 | D+15.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NH President | D+8.0 | D+7.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NH-2 House | D+4.0 | D+10.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NH-1 House | D+10.0 | D+5.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NH Governor | R+25.0 | R+31.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NH Senate | D+15.0 | D+15.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | NH President | D+12.0 | D+7.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NH-2 House | D+6.0 | D+10.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NH-1 House | D+18.0 | D+5.1 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NH Governor | R+18.0 | R+31.8 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NH Senate | D+13.0 | D+15.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NH President | D+9.0 | D+7.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | NH-2 House | D+21.0 | D+13.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | NH-1 House | D+13.0 | D+8.6 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | NH Governor | Even | R+7.0 | 7.0 | — |
| 2018-10-14 | NH-2 House | D+15.0 | D+13.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | NH-1 House | D+9.0 | D+8.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | NH Governor | R+11.0 | R+7.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | RI Governor | D+14.0 | D+15.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | RI Senate | D+24.0 | D+23.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NH-2 House | D+21.0 | D+4.4 | 16.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NH-1 House | D+9.0 | D+1.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NH President | D+11.0 | D+0.4 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NH Senate | D+4.0 | D+0.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NH Governor | D+11.0 | R+2.3 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH-2 House | D+23.0 | D+4.4 | 18.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH-1 House | D+7.0 | D+1.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH President | D+7.0 | D+0.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH Senate | D+7.0 | D+0.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH Governor | D+8.0 | R+2.3 | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | NH-2 House | D+15.0 | D+4.4 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | NH-1 House | D+4.0 | D+1.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | NH President | D+8.0 | D+0.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | NH Senate | D+1.0 | D+0.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | NH Governor | D+1.0 | R+2.3 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | M2 President | D+3.0 | R+10.3 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | M1 President | D+20.0 | D+14.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | ME-2 House | D+2.0 | R+9.6 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | ME-1 House | D+33.0 | D+16.1 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | ME President | D+11.0 | D+3.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | NH-2 House | D+30.0 | D+4.4 | 25.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | NH-1 House | D+12.0 | D+1.3 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | NH President | D+15.0 | D+0.4 | 14.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | NH Senate | D+9.0 | D+0.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | NH Governor | D+6.0 | R+2.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-17 | M2 President | R+14.0 | R+10.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-17 | M1 President | D+22.0 | D+14.8 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-17 | ME-2 House | R+10.0 | R+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-17 | ME-1 House | D+42.0 | D+16.1 | 26.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-17 | ME President | D+4.0 | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | NH-2 House | D+7.0 | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | NH-1 House | R+1.0 | R+3.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | NH Governor | D+4.0 | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-31 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | NH-2 House | D+23.0 | D+10.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | NH-1 House | D+4.0 | R+3.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-24 | NH Governor | D+15.0 | D+5.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | NH Senate | D+8.0 | D+3.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME-2 House | R+1.0 | R+5.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME-1 House | D+38.0 | D+29.8 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME Governor | R+10.0 | R+4.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME Senate | R+35.0 | R+37.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-02 | NH-2 House | R+4.0 | D+10.0 | 14.0 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-02 | NH-1 House | D+3.0 | R+3.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-02 | NH Governor | D+10.0 | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-02 | NH Senate | D+6.0 | D+3.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-22 | ME-2 House | R+10.0 | R+5.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-22 | ME-1 House | D+53.0 | D+29.8 | 23.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-22 | ME Governor | D+2.0 | R+4.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-22 | ME Senate | R+30.0 | R+37.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.