The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
11 scored general-election polls (2016–2021) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | 3.9 pts | D+3.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | 3.4 pts | D+3.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | 0.8 pts | R+0.4 | 100% |
| 2017 | 3 | 3.1 pts | D+0.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 0.7 pts | D+0.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | VA Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-09-10 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-16 | VA Senate | D+18.0 | D+12.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-16 | VA President | D+11.0 | D+10.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | VA-10 House | D+11.0 | D+12.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | VA-10 House | D+13.0 | D+12.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-27 | VA-10 House | D+12.0 | D+12.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-29 | AL Senate | D+3.0 | D+1.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-28 | VA Governor | D+5.0 | D+8.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-30 | VA Governor | D+13.0 | D+8.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.