Carroll Strategies
5 scored general-election polls (2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 9.9 pts | R+9.9 | 80% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-29 | NM-3 House | D+24.6 | D+32.2 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM-2 House | R+5.0 | D+1.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM-1 House | D+7.9 | D+22.8 | 14.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM Governor | D+5.1 | D+14.4 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM Senate | D+12.8 | D+23.6 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.