Public Policy Institute of California
13 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 0.6 pts | D+0.6 | 100% |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.7 pts | R+1.7 | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 8.8 pts | R+12.4 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 8.9 pts | R+9.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 2.5 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-18 | CA Governor | D+19.0 | D+18.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | CA President | D+26.0 | D+29.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-08 | CA President | D+29.0 | D+29.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | CA Governor | D+11.0 | D+23.9 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | CA Senate | D+16.0 | D+8.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-13 | CA Governor | D+12.0 | D+23.9 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-13 | CA Senate | D+11.0 | D+8.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | CA President | D+26.0 | D+30.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | CA Senate | D+22.0 | D+23.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | CA President | D+16.0 | D+30.1 | 14.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | CA Senate | D+7.0 | D+23.2 | 16.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-16 | CA Governor | D+16.0 | D+19.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-12 | CA Governor | D+21.0 | D+19.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.