Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership
25 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 3.4 pts | D+3.4 | — |
| 2021 | 2 | 4.4 pts | D+4.4 | 0% |
| 2020 | 5 | 3.4 pts | D+1.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | 3.6 pts | R+2.9 | 67% |
| 2017 | 5 | 2.9 pts | R+2.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 6 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| 2014 | 3 | 12.9 pts | D+12.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-15 | VA-2 House | Even | R+3.4 | 3.4 | — |
| 2021-10-21 | VA Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-01 | VA Governor | D+4.0 | R+1.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-21 | VA Senate | D+20.0 | D+12.1 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | VA President | D+12.0 | D+10.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | VA-2 House | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | VA Senate | D+13.0 | D+12.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+10.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | VA-7 House | D+3.0 | D+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-07 | VA-2 House | R+6.0 | D+2.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-27 | VA-10 House | D+11.0 | D+12.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-01 | VA Governor | D+6.0 | D+8.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-22 | VA Governor | D+7.0 | D+8.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-11 | VA Governor | D+4.0 | D+8.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-04 | VA Governor | D+7.0 | D+8.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-17 | VA Governor | D+6.0 | D+8.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | VA President | D+12.0 | D+5.3 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-13 | VA President | D+15.0 | D+5.3 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | VA Senate | D+7.0 | D+0.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-02 | VA Senate | D+12.0 | D+0.8 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-04 | VA Senate | D+22.0 | D+0.8 | 21.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.