Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative
12 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 9.5 pts | D+9.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 33% |
| 2018 | 4 | 2.5 pts | D+1.3 | 50% |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 33% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-14 | FL Governor | R+11.2 | R+19.4 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-14 | FL Senate | R+5.7 | R+16.4 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-09 | FL President | D+4.2 | R+3.4 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-11 | FL President | R+0.1 | R+3.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL Governor | D+4.7 | R+0.4 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL Senate | R+1.7 | R+0.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | FL Governor | D+2.0 | R+0.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-15 | FL Senate | R+1.0 | R+0.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | FL President | D+2.9 | R+1.2 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | FL Senate | R+3.5 | R+7.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-07 | FL President | D+5.7 | R+1.2 | 6.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.