Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research
19 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 2.7 pts | D+0.9 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.4 pts | D+4.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 6 | 8.3 pts | D+8.3 | 33% |
| 2014 | 2 | 7.0 pts | D+4.1 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-18 | PA Governor | D+22.0 | D+14.8 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | PA Senate | D+4.0 | D+4.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | PA Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-22 | PA President | D+6.0 | D+1.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | PA-7 House | D+7.2 | D+3.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-17 | PA President | D+6.0 | D+1.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | PA Governor | D+26.0 | D+17.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | PA Senate | D+15.0 | D+13.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | PA Governor | D+22.0 | D+17.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | PA Senate | D+17.0 | D+13.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | PA President | D+11.0 | R+0.7 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | PA Senate | D+12.0 | R+1.4 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-30 | PA President | D+9.0 | R+0.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-30 | PA Senate | D+6.0 | R+1.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-16 | CO President | D+7.0 | D+4.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-16 | CO Senate | D+11.0 | D+5.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | PA Governor | D+7.0 | D+9.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-19 | PA Governor | D+21.0 | D+9.9 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.