University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
14 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 2.6 pts | D+2.6 | 100% |
| 2020 | 2 | 8.3 pts | D+8.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 10 | 2.9 pts | R+1.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-28 | CA Governor | D+21.0 | D+18.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | CA Governor | D+21.0 | D+18.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | CA President | D+36.0 | D+29.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | CA President | D+39.0 | D+29.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | CA Governor | D+18.0 | D+23.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | CA Senate | D+9.0 | D+8.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-50 House | R+2.0 | R+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-49 House | D+14.0 | D+12.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-48 House | Even | D+7.1 | 7.1 | — |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-45 House | D+7.0 | D+4.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-39 House | D+1.0 | D+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-25 House | D+4.0 | D+8.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-22 House | R+8.0 | R+5.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-20 | CA-10 House | D+5.0 | D+4.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.