Marquette University Law School
26 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7 | 3.0 pts | R+0.5 | 83% |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 6 | 1.4 pts | Even | 80% |
| 2016 | 6 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 0% |
| 2014 | 4 | 2.6 pts | D+1.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-28 | WI Governor | Even | D+3.4 | 3.4 | — |
| 2022-10-28 | WI Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-06 | WI Governor | D+1.0 | D+3.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-06 | WI Senate | R+6.0 | R+1.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | R+2.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-08 | WI Governor | D+3.0 | D+3.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-08 | WI Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | WI President | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | WI President | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-26 | WI Governor | Even | D+1.1 | 1.1 | — |
| 2018-10-26 | WI Senate | D+11.0 | D+10.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-05 | WI Governor | R+1.0 | D+1.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-05 | WI Senate | D+10.0 | D+10.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-14 | WI Governor | D+5.0 | D+1.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-14 | WI Senate | D+11.0 | D+10.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-28 | WI President | D+6.0 | R+0.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | WI Senate | D+1.0 | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-08 | WI President | D+7.0 | R+0.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-08 | WI Senate | D+2.0 | R+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-17 | WI President | D+3.0 | R+0.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-17 | WI Senate | D+5.0 | R+3.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-25 | WI Governor | R+7.0 | R+5.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | WI Governor | Even | R+5.7 | 5.7 | — |
| 2014-09-27 | WI Governor | R+5.0 | R+5.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | WI Governor | R+3.0 | R+5.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.