Target Insyght
11 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 50% |
| 2018 | 6 | 5.3 pts | R+1.3 | 80% |
| 2016 | 1 | 5.2 pts | D+5.2 | 0% |
| 2014 | 2 | 4.2 pts | D+0.9 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-17 | MI-10 House | D+2.0 | R+0.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-13 | MI-7 House | D+18.0 | D+5.4 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | MI Governor | D+4.0 | D+9.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | MI Senate | D+10.0 | D+6.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | MI-11 House | Even | D+6.7 | 6.7 | — |
| 2018-10-16 | MI-8 House | R+3.0 | D+3.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-12 | MI Governor | D+9.0 | D+9.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | MI Senate | D+15.0 | D+6.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | MI President | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-24 | MI Governor | D+1.0 | R+4.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-24 | MI Senate | D+10.0 | D+13.3 | 3.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.