Thomas Partners Strategies/Øptimus
8 scored general-election polls (2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 8 | 14.8 pts | R+14.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-26 | CA Governor | D+13.4 | D+23.9 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | CA Governor | D+12.5 | D+23.9 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | CA Governor | D+7.4 | D+23.9 | 16.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | CA Governor | D+11.6 | D+23.9 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | CA Governor | D+5.0 | D+23.9 | 18.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | CA Governor | D+11.0 | D+23.9 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | CA Governor | D+4.1 | D+23.9 | 19.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | CA Governor | D+8.2 | D+23.9 | 15.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.