University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab
17 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 6.6 pts | D+6.6 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 33% |
| 2018 | 5 | 2.4 pts | D+2.4 | 25% |
| 2016 | 5 | 5.2 pts | D+5.2 | 60% |
| 2014 | 1 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-24 | FL-4 House | R+12.0 | R+20.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | FL Governor | R+14.0 | R+19.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | FL Senate | R+11.0 | R+16.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | FL President | D+1.0 | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | FL-4 House | R+19.0 | R+22.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | FL President | D+6.0 | R+3.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-25 | FL Governor | D+6.0 | R+0.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-25 | FL Senate | D+1.0 | R+0.1 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-01 | FL-16 House | R+9.0 | R+9.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-18 | FL Governor | D+4.0 | R+0.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-18 | FL Senate | Even | R+0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2016-10-22 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+1.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | FL Senate | R+6.0 | R+7.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | FL-13 House | D+18.0 | D+3.8 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-01 | FL Senate | R+7.0 | R+7.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | FL Governor | D+5.0 | R+1.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.