Fleming & Associates
7 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 7.9 pts | R+7.9 | 50% |
| 2018 | 4 | 5.3 pts | R+5.3 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-01 | RI-2 House | R+6.0 | D+3.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-01 | RI Governor | D+13.0 | D+19.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | RI Governor | D+10.8 | D+15.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | RI Senate | D+19.0 | D+23.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | RI Governor | D+7.0 | D+15.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | RI Senate | D+19.0 | D+23.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | RI Governor | D+6.0 | D+4.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.