Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
23 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 2.1 pts | R+2.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 5 | 2.9 pts | D+1.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 8 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 29% |
| 2014 | 2 | 6.6 pts | D+6.6 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-26 | PA Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | PA Senate | Even | D+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
| 2022-10-13 | PA-7 House | D+1.0 | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-15 | PA Governor | D+11.0 | D+14.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-15 | PA Senate | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | PA-7 House | D+13.0 | D+3.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | PA Governor | D+21.0 | D+17.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | PA Senate | D+14.0 | D+13.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | PA-7 House | D+7.0 | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | PA Governor | D+19.0 | D+17.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | PA Senate | D+18.0 | D+13.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | PA Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | PA President | D+6.0 | R+0.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-23 | PA Senate | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2016-09-21 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+0.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-21 | PA Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | PA President | D+8.0 | R+0.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-14 | PA Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-28 | PA Governor | D+12.0 | D+9.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-17 | PA Governor | D+21.0 | D+9.9 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.