Tulchin Research partisan·D
13 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 1.7 pts | D+1.7 | 100% |
| 2020 | 1 | 13.9 pts | D+13.9 | 0% |
| 2018 | 7 | 4.8 pts | D+0.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-30 | CA-41 House | R+3.0 | R+4.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | IL-13 House | D+5.0 | R+8.9 | 13.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-27 | NY-27 House | D+4.0 | D+4.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | TX Senate | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-07 | NY-27 House | Even | D+4.8 | 4.8 | — |
| 2018-09-30 | CA-50 House | R+0.7 | R+3.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | CA-39 House | D+1.0 | D+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | VT Governor | R+8.0 | R+14.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-25 | VT Senate | D+55.0 | D+39.9 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | CA-25 House | R+2.0 | R+6.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | CA-7 House | D+11.0 | D+2.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | CA-49 House | D+4.0 | R+0.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-12 | CA-7 House | D+3.0 | D+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.