Pan Atlantic Research partisan·D
21 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 4.6 pts | D+2.4 | 100% |
| 2020 | 6 | 10.0 pts | D+6.6 | 67% |
| 2018 | 4 | 2.1 pts | Even | 75% |
| 2014 | 8 | 6.8 pts | D+4.5 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-11 | ME-2 House | D+7.4 | D+6.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | ME-1 House | D+35.1 | D+25.9 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | ME Governor | D+10.0 | D+13.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | M2 President | D+3.5 | R+7.4 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | M1 President | D+17.5 | D+23.1 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | ME-2 House | D+27.7 | D+6.1 | 21.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | ME-1 House | D+19.7 | D+24.3 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | ME Senate | D+7.1 | R+8.6 | 15.7 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | ME President | D+10.6 | D+9.1 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | ME-2 House | R+0.5 | D+1.3 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-04 | ME-1 House | D+24.0 | D+26.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | ME Governor | D+8.5 | D+7.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | ME Senate | R+21.4 | R+24.8 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME-2 House | D+1.2 | R+5.2 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME-1 House | D+43.7 | D+29.8 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME Governor | R+0.6 | R+4.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | ME Senate | R+39.6 | R+37.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | ME-2 House | D+3.0 | R+5.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-26 | ME-1 House | D+42.0 | D+29.8 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | ME Governor | R+5.0 | R+4.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | ME Senate | R+43.3 | R+37.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.