Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner ✓ | 102,289 | 78.3% | |
| Ethan Dunbar | 28,394 | 21.7% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton ✓ | 230,209 | 81.6% | |
| Michah Ashby | 26,040 | 9.2% | |
| Micah Ashby | 26,040 | 9.2% | |
| Jeb Little | 25,724 | 9.1% |
Full calendar and every race: Arkansas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
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Candidates
Tom Cotton Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R) partisan·R | 2026-10-04 | 550 LV | Hallie Shoffner 39.00% | Tom Cotton 50.00% | |
| J.L. Partners partisan·R | 2026-08-18 | 803 LV | ±3.50 | Hallie Shoffner 35.00% | Tom Cotton 51.00% |
| Hendrix College | 2026-08-12 | 1217 LV | ±4.70 | Hallie Shoffner 47.00% | Tom Cotton 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
Tom Cotton leads Hallie Shoffner 50% to 39% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+11.0 margin based on 1 poll from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Arkansas Senate race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Arkansas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from GrayHouse (R) (completed October 4, 2026), found Hallie Shoffner (D) at 39% and Tom Cotton (R) at 50%.
When is the 2026 Arkansas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that week is the average. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists the polls from that window. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Two-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated 1 hour ago
Top Spenders
- AMERICA ONE GOP-aligned $5,074,765
- ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE GOP-aligned $179,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →