Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner ✓ | 102,289 | 78.3% | |
| Ethan Dunbar | 28,394 | 21.7% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton ✓ | 230,209 | 81.6% | |
| Micah Ashby | 26,040 | 9.2% | |
| Michah Ashby | 26,040 | 9.2% | |
| Jeb Little | 25,724 | 9.1% |
Full calendar and every race: Arkansas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Tom Cotton Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2026-10-13 | 709 LV | ±5.00 | Hallie Shoffner 41.00% | Tom Cotton 50.00% |
| GrayHouse (R) partisan·R | 2026-10-04 | 550 LV | Hallie Shoffner 39.00% | Tom Cotton 50.00% | |
| J.L. Partners partisan·R | 2026-08-18 | 803 LV | ±3.50 | Hallie Shoffner 35.00% | Tom Cotton 51.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
Tom Cotton leads Hallie Shoffner 50.3% to 38.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+12.0 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Arkansas Senate race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Arkansas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Hendrix College (completed October 13, 2026), found Hallie Shoffner (D) at 41% and Tom Cotton (R) at 50%.
When is the 2026 Arkansas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Two-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- AMERICA ONE GOP-aligned $5,074,765
- ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE GOP-aligned $179,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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