Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner ✓ | 102,289 | 78.3% | |
| Ethan Dunbar | 28,394 | 21.7% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton ✓ | 230,209 | 81.6% | |
| Micah Ashby | 26,040 | 9.2% | |
| Jeb Little | 25,724 | 9.1% |
Full calendar and every race: Arkansas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
Share
Race page
Candidates
Tom Cotton Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners partisan·R | 2026-08-18 | 803 LV | ±3.50 | Hallie Shoffner 35.00% | Tom Cotton 51.00% |
| Hendrix College | 2026-08-12 | 1217 LV | ±4.70 | Hallie Shoffner 47.00% | Tom Cotton 44.00% |
| 2040 Strategy Group (D) partisan·D | 2026-07-25 | 586 LV | ±4.00 | Hallie Shoffner 43.00% | Tom Cotton 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
Tom Cotton leads Hallie Shoffner 47.5% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+6.5 margin based on 2 polls from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 Arkansas Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely R, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Arkansas Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from J.L. Partners (completed August 18, 2026), found Hallie Shoffner (D) at 35% and Tom Cotton (R) at 51%.
When is the 2026 Arkansas Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Two-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated 4 hours ago
Top Spenders
- AMERICA ONE GOP-aligned $3,138,945
- ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE GOP-aligned $179,900
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →