Today's Source

Monday, October 12, 2026

← Oct 11

Cook Political Report shifts 18 House races toward Democrats as Republicans face mounting midterm losses

Polls

CA Governor View race View race Independent Voter Project (n=2906 LV)	Xavier Becerra 48% · Steve Hilton 38%
NM Governor View race View race Research & Polling Inc. (n=1125 LV)	Deb Haaland 49% · Gregg Hull 42%
PA Governor View race View race Quinnipiac University (n=1159 LV)	Josh Shapiro 59% · Stacy Garrity 34%
NC-01 House View race co/efficient (R) (n=623 LV)	Don Davis 42% · Laurie Buckhout 43%
AK Senate View race View race InsiderAdvantage (n=1200 LV)	Peltola 50% · Sullivan 48%
KS Senate View race View race InsiderAdvantage (n=1200 LV)	Hamilton 48% · Marshall 47%
MI Senate View race View race Quantus (n=744 LV)	Abdul El-Sayed 47.6% · Rogers 46.5%
MI Senate View race View race InsiderAdvantage (n=1200 LV)	El-Sayed 48% · Rogers 46%

Explore all polls and averages →

Follow the Money

The Follow the Money section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.

Headlines

Lone debate for South Carolina Senate gets testy: 5 takeaways (The Hill)
El-Sayed addresses past Obama criticism, says Democrats now ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ (The Hill)
What This Bipartisan Plan Would Change About the Senate (Daily Signal)
News or Ad? Texan Ken Paxton Gets Barbecued by Broadcast News (Daily Signal)
Will Kansas Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue? (RealClearPolitics)

What to Watch

Governor's Races Headline the Board

No new events are scheduled in the coming week, but ten governor's races remain active enough to warrant attention. The Georgia governor's race is the only contest rated a Toss-up, making it the single closest race on the board and the one most likely to swing late. Watch for any polling movement there before watching anything else.

One tier out, the Arizona and Kansas races carry Lean D and Lean R ratings respectively, alongside Lean R contests in Florida and Nebraska — all four close enough that a modest polling shift could change their classification.

The remaining races — Iowa, Michigan, and New Mexico (Likely D), plus New Hampshire (Likely R) and Minnesota (Likely D) — are less competitive but still worth monitoring for any rating changes.

Continue reading →

New Polls (9)

Alaska Senate View race 1 poll

Oct 10, 2026 InsiderAdvantage n=1,200 LV · ±2.8 Peltola 50% – Sullivan 48% D+2

Kansas Senate View race 1 poll

Oct 10, 2026 InsiderAdvantage n=1,200 LV · ±2.8 Hamilton 48% – Marshall 47% D+1

Michigan Senate View race 2 polls

Oct 10, 2026 InsiderAdvantage n=1,200 LV · ±2.8 El-Sayed 48% – Rogers 46% D+2

Oct 6, 2026 Quantus n=744 LV Abdul El-Sayed 47.6% – Rogers 46.5% D+1.1

South Carolina Senate View race 1 poll

Oct 8, 2026 Rasmussen Reports (R) n=837 LV · ±3 Annie Andrews 45% – Darline Graham 49% R+4

California Governor View race 1 poll

Oct 2, 2026 Independent Voter Project n=2,906 LV · ±2.5 Xavier Becerra 48% – Steve Hilton 38% D+10

New Mexico Governor View race 1 poll

Oct 9, 2026 Research & Polling Inc. n=1,125 LV · ±2.9 Deb Haaland 49% – Gregg Hull 42% D+7

Pennsylvania Governor View race 1 poll

Oct 5, 2026 Quinnipiac University n=1,159 LV · ±3.9 Josh Shapiro 59% – Stacy Garrity 34% D+25

North Carolina CD-01 View race 1 poll

Oct 8, 2026 co/efficient (R) n=623 LV · ±3.9 Don Davis 42% – Laurie Buckhout 43% R+1

How was today's briefing?

Get this briefing in your inbox every morning