South Carolina's Senate race enters an unusual phase following Lindsey Graham's death, with Republican Ralph Norman seeking President Trump's endorsement in the special primary while Democrat Annie Andrews suspends her campaign attacks to extend condolences. Meanwhile, three fresh polls in the Maine Senate race show the contest essentially tied regardless of which Democrat eventually emerges as nominee, underscoring that the race's competitiveness may be structural rather than candidate-specific.
South Carolina Senate: A Race Reset by Tragedy
Graham's death Saturday has upended South Carolina's Senate race before it was fully formed as a 2026 contest. Republican Representative Ralph Norman met with Trump to request an endorsement in the special primary to fill the seat, with Trump telling Norman he would decide within a week. Democrat Annie Andrews, who had been positioning to challenge Graham, paused her campaign's partisan messaging following his death, offering condolences to his family and staff. The timeline and field for the special election remain unsettled, with Trump's eventual endorsement likely to shape the Republican primary significantly given the president's influence in the state.
Maine Senate: Three Democrats, Same Deadlock
The Maine Senate race shows a remarkably consistent pattern across three recent polls testing different potential Democratic nominees against Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent: all fall within four points. A Z to A Research survey has Shenna Bellows tied with Collins at 47 percent each. A Tavern Research poll shows Graham Platner, despite his formal withdrawal, still running ahead of Collins 52 to 48 among those surveyed. A Wedgewood Polls survey testing state Senate President Troy Jackson against Collins finds him ahead 48 to 43. The consistency across matchups suggests Collins faces real headwinds in Maine regardless of which Democrat ultimately wins the nomination, reinforcing the PollingSource average's toss-up rating.
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed Narrowly Behind Rogers
An archival Data for Progress survey fielded through late June, now added to the PollingSource database, shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed trailing Republican Mike Rogers by a single point, 47 to 46, in the Michigan Senate race. The same pollster's simultaneous polling of Michigan's 7th Congressional District found competitive numbers there as well, with Democrats Matt Maasdam, William Lawrence and Bridget Brink each running within one to two points of Republican Tom Barrett. Taken together, the batch of Michigan data points to a state where Republican strength down-ballot is roughly uniform across contests, a dynamic distinct from the ticket-splitting seen in some other battlegrounds this cycle.
New York's Overlapping Races Show a Divided Suburban Map
Two New York contests illustrate different competitive dynamics within the state. In the New York governor's race, a co/efficient poll conducted for Republicans through July 2 shows Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul leading Bruce Blakeman 47 to 41, consistent with the race's Safe D rating. In the state's 17th Congressional District, an FM3 Research poll for Democrats conducted through July 1 shows Democrat Cait Conley leading Republican incumbent Mike Lawler 51 to 45 — a wider margin than the district's Likely D rating might suggest, though the poll's Democratic sponsorship warrants some caution in reading the topline.
Watch for further movement in the Michigan Senate primary as the Stevens-El-Sayed contest continues to be framed as a test of Democratic Party direction, and for any signal from Trump on his South Carolina endorsement given his one-week timeline.
Polls
| AZ Governor GrayHouse (R) (n=744 RV) | Katie Hobbs 40.00% · None None% |
| MN Governor Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (n=800 LV) | Amy Klobuchar 48.00% · Lisa Demuth 40.00% |
| NY Governor co/efficient (R) (n=1085 LV) | Kathy Hochul 47.00% · Bruce Blakeman 41.00% |
| OR Governor Public Opinion Strategies (R) (n=600 RV) | Tina Kotek 44.00% · Christine Drazan 48.00% |
| WI Governor Wedgewood Polls (n=707 LV) | Mandela Barnes 48.00% · Tom Tiffany 44.00% |
| AL House Impact Research (D) (n=400 LV) | Shomari Figures 44.00% · Rhett Marques 45.00% |
| FL House Beacon Insights (n=461 RV) | Jared Moskowitz 40.00% · George Moraitis 39.00% |
| FL House Beacon Insights (n=461 RV) | Jared Moskowitz 43.00% · Scott Singer 33.00% |
Follow the Money
Ohio Senate: Brown Outpaces Husted in First Reports
Sherrod Brown, the Democrat seeking a return to the Senate, reported nearly $26 million in receipts for the quarter and closed with just over $17 million on hand, one of the strongest cash positions of any candidate to file so far. Republican Jon Husted raised roughly $10.5 million and banked $8.2 million, giving Brown better than a two-to-one advantage in cash on hand heading into the next phase of the Ohio Senate race. Both campaigns kept spending well below receipts this period, suggesting an early build-up of reserves rather than heavy contest-phase outlays.
Michigan's Crowded Senate Primary Shows Wide Spending Gaps
The Democratic field vying for Michigan's open seat reported similar fundraising hauls but diverging cash positions. Haley Stevens led with $8.87 million raised, followed by Mallory McMorrow at $8.6 million and Abdul El-Sayed at $7.65 million. Stevens and McMorrow ended with comparable cash on hand, near $3.4 million and $3.7 million respectively, while El-Sayed's disbursements outpaced the others relative to receipts, leaving him with $2.5 million banked. On the Republican side, Michael Rogers raised $7.68 million and retained $4.25 million, positioning him closer to the general election with less drawn down than his Democratic rivals in the Michigan Senate race.
Texas and Kentucky Senate Filers Show Heavy Burn Rates
Several campaigns reported disbursements exceeding receipts for the quarter. In the Texas Senate race, Republican incumbent John Cornyn raised $7.92 million but spent $7.96 million, while Democrat Colin Allred brought in $7.63 million against $7.76 million in spending, leaving him with just $11,951 in the bank. In Kentucky, Republican Garland Barr raised $8.4 million but spent nearly $9.65 million, and rival Republican Nate Morris raised $8.59 million while spending $7.88 million, ending with only $708,324 on hand. The pattern in both races points to costly primary contests that have already consumed most incoming funds well ahead of the general election.
House Filers: Crockett and Delaney Report Depleted Reserves
Among House filings, Texas Democrat Jasmine Crockett reported $7.91 million in receipts against $9.44 million in disbursements, leaving her campaign with zero cash on hand at the close of the period. Maryland Democrat April Delaney showed a similar pattern, raising $8.55 million but spending $8.13 million, retaining just $426,334. Georgia Democrat Shawn Harris also reported minimal cash on hand, at $74,021, despite raising nearly $7.9 million. These filings, among the earliest of the quarter, suggest sustained high-spending operations in contested House races well before any pre-election reporting deadlines.
Headlines
- What's In a Name? Alaska's Confounding Senate Race (RealClearPolitics)
Alaska's 2024 Senate race features an unusual naming situation with multiple candidates sharing similar names, adding... - Maine Dems Seek Platner-Like Change Agent - Minus Baggage (RealClearPolitics)
Following Graham Platner's campaign collapse, Maine Democratic voters are actively seeking an alternative candidate w... - Platner Is Proof Dems Will Overlook Anything for Power (RealClearPolitics)
Maine Democrat Graham Platner's Senate campaign has faced significant difficulties, prompting Democratic operatives t...
What to Watch
Alabama's Runoff Calendar
Alabama's runoff for Senate, House, and governor nominations is set for July 14, 2026, still several months out but worth flagging now for candidate filing and fundraising deadlines that will shape the field before then. Expect clearer contours on the ballot in the coming weeks as primary results settle.
House Battlegrounds Cluster in the West
The most competitive House terrain remains concentrated in Arizona and California. Cook Political Report rates Arizona's 1st District and 6th District as toss-ups, while California's 13th and 22nd Districts carry the same designation. Watch for fundraising reports and any candidate announcements that could shift these ratings. California's 45th and 47th Districts lean Republican per Inside Elections and Cook respectively, giving Democrats target seats to watch for movement.
Senate Contests to Track
Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the Florida Senate race Likely R, while Cook rates Georgia's Senate race Lean D. Any new polling in these two races this week will be worth close attention, given their divergent trajectories.
New Polls (10)
Added to the Archive (16)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Oregon Governor N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Wisconsin Governor N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Minnesota Governor N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: New York Governor N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: New Hampshire Senate N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Virginia Senate N/A → Safe D
PollingSource Poll Average: Maine Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan Senate N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Montana Senate N/A → Safe R
PollingSource Poll Average: Wisconsin House CD-03 N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas House CD-34 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas House CD-15 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Alabama House CD-02 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida House CD-25 N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Kentucky House CD-06 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Michigan House CD-07 N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: New York House CD-17 N/A → Likely D
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio House CD-15 N/A → Lean R
PollingSource Poll Average: Pennsylvania House CD-07 N/A → Lean D
PollingSource Poll Average: Texas House CD-28 N/A → Likely R
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida Governor N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Florida Senate N/A → Lean R
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