Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Lawrence ✓ | 55,921 | 43.7% | |
| Bridget Brink | 36,870 | 28.8% | |
| Matt Maasdam | 35,307 | 27.6% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Barrett ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Tom Barrett Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-08-13 | 500 LV | William Lawrence 49.00% | Tom Barrett 47.00% | |
| Data for Progress (D) partisan·D 2024 err 4.1 | 2026-06-30 | 772 LV | William Lawrence 48.00% | Tom Barrett 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MI-07 House race?
William Lawrence leads Tom Barrett 48.5% to 46.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 MI-07 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MI-07 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Global Strategy Group (D) (completed August 13, 2026), found William Lawrence (D) at 49% and Tom Barrett (R) at 47%.
When is the 2026 MI-07 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 6 hours ago
Top Spenders
- HMP Dem-aligned $5,361,517
- VOTEVETS Dem-aligned $2,153,682
- MICHIGAN VALUES PAC GOP-aligned $1,307,287
- MICHIGAN SUNRISE PAC Mixed $1,273,793
- ROLLING SEA ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $1,124,952
- SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. GOP-aligned $1,086,269
- CRUSH MAGA PAC GOP-aligned $909,204
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $800,000
- WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC Dem-aligned $746,748
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $698,280
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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