Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Lawrence ✓ | 55,921 | 43.7% | |
| Bridget Brink | 36,870 | 28.8% | |
| Matt Maasdam | 35,307 | 27.6% |
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
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Candidates
Tom Barrett Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-08-13 | 500 LV | William Lawrence 49.00% | Tom Barrett 47.00% | |
| Data for Progress (D) partisan·D ±4.1 | 2026-06-30 | 772 LV | William Lawrence 48.00% | Tom Barrett 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MI-07 House race?
William Lawrence leads Tom Barrett 49% to 47% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 MI-07 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MI-07 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Global Strategy Group (D) (completed August 13, 2026), found William Lawrence (D) at 49% and Tom Barrett (R) at 47%.
When is the 2026 MI-07 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 32 min ago
Top Spenders
- VOTEVETS Dem-aligned $2,153,682
- MICHIGAN VALUES PAC GOP-aligned $1,786,544
- MICHIGAN SUNRISE PAC Mixed $1,275,293
- ROLLING SEA ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $1,124,952
- CRUSH MAGA PAC GOP-aligned $909,204
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION Dem-aligned $400,000
- ELECT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN Mixed $249,782
- WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC Dem-aligned $242,960
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $169,800
- BATTLEGROUND DEMOCRATS Dem-aligned $58,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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