Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) partisan·D ±4.1 | 2026-06-30 | 772 LV | William Lawrence 48.00% | Tom Barrett 46.00% | |
| Data for Progress (D) partisan·D ±4.1 | 2026-06-30 | 772 LV | Matt Maasdam 46.00% | Tom Barrett 47.00% | |
| Data for Progress (D) partisan·D ±4.1 | 2026-06-30 | 772 LV | Bridget Brink 45.00% | Tom Barrett 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MI-07 House race?
William Lawrence leads Tom Barrett 46% to 45.6% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+0.4 margin based on 5 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 MI-07 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MI-07 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Data for Progress (D) (completed June 30, 2026), found William Lawrence (D) at 48% and Tom Barrett (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 MI-07 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- VOTEVETS $1,653,682
- MICHIGAN VALUES PAC $956,660
- CRUSH MAGA PAC $909,204
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION $400,000
- ROLLING SEA ACTION FUND $125,000
- WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC $88,960
- SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA $50,988
- HEALTHCARE FOR ACTION PAC $17,523
- YOUTH SAVE DEMOCRACY PAC $4,965
- FIELD TEAM 6, INC. $1,882
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.