Primary
Primary held May 5, 2026.
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Leonard ✓ | 23,798 | 52.9% | |
| Adam Miller | 21,179 | 47.1% |
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Carey ✓ | 39,446 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Ohio primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
Mike Carey Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-25 | 550 LV | Don Leonard 40.00% | Mike Carey 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 OH-15 House race?
Mike Carey leads Don Leonard 45% to 40% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+5.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 OH-15 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 OH-15 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Hart Research (D) (completed June 25, 2026), found Don Leonard (D) at 40% and Mike Carey (R) at 45%.
When is the 2026 OH-15 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.