Primary
Democratic Primary
Held May 5, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Leonard ✓ | 23,798 | 52.9% | |
| Adam Miller | 21,179 | 47.1% |
Republican Primary
Held May 5, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Carey ✓ | 39,446 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Ohio primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-08-09 | 401 LV | ±4.90 | Don Leonard 37.00% | Mike Carey 41.00% |
| Hart Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-25 | 550 LV | Don Leonard 40.00% | Mike Carey 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 OH-15 House race?
Mike Carey leads Don Ralph Leonard 43% to 38.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+4.5 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 OH-15 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 OH-15 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Hart Research (D) (completed August 9, 2026), found Don Leonard (D) at 37% and Mike Carey (R) at 41%.
When is the 2026 OH-15 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 7 hours ago
Top Spenders
- YOUR COMMUNITY PAC Dem-aligned $1,290,296
- HMP Dem-aligned $1,092,016
- SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. GOP-aligned $625,000
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $476,212
- DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC. GOP-aligned $321,869
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $306,347
- AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) Dem-aligned $300,000
- BUCKEYE PROSPERITY PAC GOP-aligned $196,570
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $54,385
- MAGA INC. GOP-aligned $34,558
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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