Primary
Democratic Primary
Held May 5, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Leonard ✓ | 23,798 | 52.9% | |
| Adam Miller | 21,179 | 47.1% |
Republican Primary
Held May 5, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Carey ✓ | 39,446 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Ohio primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.
Share
Race page
Candidates
Mike Carey Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-08-09 | 401 LV | ±4.90 | Don Leonard 37.00% | Mike Carey 41.00% |
| Hart Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-25 | 550 LV | Don Leonard 40.00% | Mike Carey 45.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 OH-15 House race?
Polling so far tested a matchup that is no longer live: Don Leonard is not the Democrat nominee — Don Ralph Leonard is. In that earlier polling, Mike Carey led Don Leonard 41% to 37%. The PollingSource average resets once the final matchup is polled.
Is the 2026 OH-15 House race competitive?
No — the expert consensus rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 OH-15 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Hart Research (D) (completed August 9, 2026), found Don Leonard (D) at 37% and Mike Carey (R) at 41%.
When is the 2026 OH-15 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.