Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Wisconsin primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-25 | 535 LV | ±4.40 | Rebecca Cooke 50.00% | Derrick Van Orden 46.00% |
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-31 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Rebecca Cooke 50.00% | Derrick Van Orden 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 WI-03 House race?
Rebecca Cooke leads Derrick Van Orden 50% to 46% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+4.0 margin based on 2 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 WI-03 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive. Note: our polling average (Lean D) diverges from the expert consensus (Likely R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 WI-03 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from FM3 Research (D) (completed June 25, 2026), found Rebecca Cooke (D) at 50% and Derrick Van Orden (R) at 46%.
When is the 2026 WI-03 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 8 hours ago
Top Spenders
- LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC $153,880
- THE WISCO PROJECT PAC $24,474
- WELCOMEPAC $12,898
- DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF WISCONSIN FEDERAL $4,118
- ACTIVATE AMERICA $2,933
- FIELD TEAM 6, INC. $1,392
- THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC $125
- GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION $115
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.