Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar ✓ | 39,133 | 58.1% | |
| Ricardo Villarreal | 24,908 | 37.0% | |
| Andrew Vantine | 3,360 | 5.0% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tano Tijerina ✓ | 12,487 | 74.4% | |
| Eileen Day | 4,305 | 25.6% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Henry Cuellar Nominee Incumbent
DemocratGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | 2026-08-22 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Henry Cuellar 45.00% | Tano Tijerina 34.00% |
| Pulse Science Decision (R) partisan·R | 2026-06-23 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Henry Cuellar 38.00% | Tano Tijerina 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 TX-28 House race?
Henry Cuellar leads Tano Tijerina 41.5% to 40% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.5 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 TX-28 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 TX-28 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University (completed August 22, 2026), found Henry Cuellar (D) at 45% and Tano Tijerina (R) at 34%.
When is the 2026 TX-28 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- HMP Dem-aligned $3,237,927
- CHC BOLD PAC Dem-aligned $502,155
- BOLD AMERICA Dem-aligned $181,200
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $180,909
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $148,571
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $49,652
- J STREET ACTION FUND Dem-aligned $39,386
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $17,508
- LUPE VOTES FEDERAL SUPER PAC, INC. Dem-aligned $9,390
- MAGA INC. GOP-aligned $3,046
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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