Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Warner ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Mizusawa ✓ | 122,335 | 51.5% | |
| David E. Williams | 68,818 | 28.9% | |
| Kim Farington | 46,621 | 19.6% |
Full calendar and every race: Virginia primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Mark Warner Nominee Incumbent
Democrat
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University | 2026-10-10 | 702 LV | ±4.00 | Mark Warner 51.00% | Bert Mizusawa 37.00% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-06-16 | 996 LV | ±3.70 | Mark Warner 51.00% | Bert Mizusawa 33.00% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) | 2026-05-05 | 1047 LV | ±3.70 | Mark Warner 55.00% | Bert Mizusawa 29.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Virginia Senate race?
Mark Warner leads Bert K Mizusawa 52.3% to 33% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+19.3 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 Virginia Senate race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe D for Democrats.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Virginia Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Christopher Newport University (completed October 10, 2026), found Mark Warner (D) at 51% and Bert Mizusawa (R) at 37%.
When is the 2026 Virginia Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Three-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated 28 min ago
Top Spenders
- WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC Dem-aligned $45,500
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