Primary
Democratic Primary
Held September 8, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas ✓ | 95,653 | 65.1% | |
| Karishma Manzur | 48,255 | 32.9% | |
| David Jarvis | 1,156 | 0.8% | |
| John Vail | 924 | 0.6% | |
| Maxwell L. Saal | 890 | 0.6% |
Republican Primary
Held September 8, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| John E. Sununu ✓ | 72,039 | 68.8% | |
| Scott P. Brown | 28,201 | 26.9% | |
| Sky Danley | 1,116 | 1.1% | |
| Sabrina Ann Smith | 898 | 0.9% | |
| Andy Martin | 747 | 0.7% | |
| Mary Maxwell | 732 | 0.7% | |
| Tom Alciere | 579 | 0.6% | |
| Richard A. McMenamon II | 381 | 0.4% |
Full calendar and every race: New Hampshire primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) partisan·R | 2026-10-12 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Chris Pappas 50.00% | John E. Sununu 45.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-10-05 | 1520 LV | ±3.90 | Chris Pappas 51.00% | John E. Sununu 43.00% |
| Saint Anselm College | 2026-09-29 | 1042 LV | ±3.00 | Chris Pappas 51.00% | John E. Sununu 44.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-09-27 | 1082 LV | ±2.90 | Chris Pappas 47.00% | John E. Sununu 41.00% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-09-25 | 1090 LV | ±2.90 | Chris Pappas 46.00% | John E. Sununu 42.00% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 1418 LV | ±2.60 | Chris Pappas 50.00% | John E. Sununu 42.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
Chris Pappas leads John E. Sununu 50.7% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+6.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from National Public Affairs (R) (completed October 12, 2026), found Chris Pappas (D) at 50% and John E. Sununu (R) at 45%.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Shaheen retiring after 3 terms
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $9,493,158
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $5,730,835
- THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND GOP-aligned $973,584
- WINSENATE Dem-aligned $762,863
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $515,887
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $299,085
- AMERICA'S CREDIT UNIONS Dem-aligned $296,636
- EQUALITY PAC Dem-aligned $165,000
- DEFEND THE VOTE Dem-aligned $100,000
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $90,075
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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